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XM市场研究

XM市场研究 - 9小时前

Week Ahead – A decisive week for USD with NFP and more; BoJ meets

A crucial week lies ahead with US jobs report, advance GDP and PCE inflationThe Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates, but will it flag a year-end hike?Flash GDP and CPI data for the euro area are also hotly anticipatedAustralian quarterly CPI and UK budget on the agenda tooAll eyes on US data as Fed turns hawkish againThe Federal Reserve’s surprise decision in September to cut rates by a larger-than-expected 50-basis-points seems like a distant memory now, as policymakers are once again sen
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XM市场研究 - 11小时前

Daily Comment – Tensions remain high in equities

Strong US data is not welcomed by equitiesBusy calendar today but markets are already focusing on next weekJapan holds election on Sunday; the outcome could surpriseBoJ and yen could suffer from a hung parliament Data reconfirm the strength of the US economyYesterday’s PMI surveys release was a stark reminder that the US presidential election is not the sole market-moving factor.
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XM市场研究 - 1天前

Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, US500, Gold

USDJPY finds resistance near the 61.8% FibonacciUS 500 declines near the previous highsGold retreats within ascending channel
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XM市场研究 - 1天前

Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure amid US election jitters, dollar extends gains

Reduced Fed rate cut bets and growing odds of a Trump win push up yieldsWall Street slips; gold also takes a hit, but only temporarilyDollar climbs to 3-month high, yen and euro struggleWall Street headed for weekly lossesThe rally on Wall Street came to an abrupt end this week as uncertainty about the looming US presidential election as well as about the pace of Fed rate cuts undermined confidence in risk assets.
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XM市场研究 - 2天前Bullish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY meets new high around 153.00

USDJPY rallies above 200-day SMAMACD and RSI confirm upside momentumUSDJPY surged to a fresh almost three-month high near 152.85, breaking the significant line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to the upside. The price is creating a strong bullish wave from mid-September, adding around 10% to its value.Technically, the RSI is crossing abov
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Japanese election could hold the key to the next BoJ hike

Japanese snap election will be held on Saturday, October 27Governing LDP party vying for another win but outcome uncertainBoJ’s outlook could be clouded if LPD doesn’t achieve majorityYen could suffer if the new government focuses more on fiscal policy Japan holds elections on October 27Just a few days before the key US presidential election and the much-discussed November 7 Fed meeting, Japan will hold a general election.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Volatility remains elevated in FX space and commodities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility reaches new 30-day highVolatility in both gold and silver jumpsStock indices continue to experience average volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to the highest level of the past month, as the ECB delivered its much-expected rate cut and the discussion about the November Fed meeting is underway. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the November 5 US presidential election.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY poised for a bullish trend reversal

USDJPY jumps back into the 150 area after two monthsCaution needed due to overbought conditionsUSDJPY kicked off the week on a strong note, rising at a faster pace to close above the 150.00 mark for the first time since August. The pickup in the price confirms a bullish breakout above the August high of 149.40 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Demand for safe assets lingers

Dollar, gold and US yields are on the riseUS presidential election risks start to affect market sentimentFocus today on central bank speakers at the IMF annual meetingBRICS summit could generate headlines, particularly for the Middle EastUS presidential election is firmly on the market's radarThe US dollar continues to enjoy strong demand, outperforming its main counterparts.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Week Ahead – BoC to speed up rate cuts; flash PMIs eyed for growth clues

Bank of Canada meets; may opt for bigger 50-bps cutOctober flash PMIs to set the mood amid some growth concernsA relatively quiet week otherwise, with mostly second-tier releasesBoC to likely cut by half a pointExpectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting firmed up after the latest CPI data. Nevertheless, markets are not fully convinced of an outsized move, hence, there is a little bit of uncertainty heading into Wednesday’s decision by Canada��
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Quick Brief - US retail sales give dollar bulls another shot in the arm

Retail sales in the US rise by more than expected in SeptemberInitial jobless claims are also better than expectedUS dollar edges higher after the dataIt’s a hat-trick of stronger-than-expected data for the US economy as retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index all beat their forecasts on Thursday. Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in September, topping estimates of 0.3% and accelerating from the prior 0.1% reading.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY faces a pass or fail test

USDJPY extends consolidation around August’s barTechnical signals weaken, cannot warrant a bullish trend reversalUS retail sales, jobless claims due on Thursday at 12:30 GMTUSDJPY reached a two-month high of 149.96, but it couldn’t hold its strength above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 149.40 on Tuesday.Over the past few days, the pair has been struggling for a bullish breakout, leaving investors wondering whether it’s time for a negative pivot. The slowdown in the techni
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Technical Analysis – USDJPY eases after testing 150.00

USDJPY needs more boost to change the medium-term view to bullishRSI ticks down, but MACD is still in upside phaseUSDJPY has found significant resistance at the 150.00 psychological level during yesterday’s session, driving the price lower toward the 149.00 level.Technically, the RSI indicator, which lies above the neutral threshold of 50, is pointing downwards; however, the MACD oscillator is extending its bullish momentum above its trigger and zero lines.In case of more bullish pressure, the
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Volatility eases slightly as the risk on sentiment lingers – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility is very close to the last 30 days’ highVolatility in commodities remains elevatedStock indices experience above average volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains very high, close to the highest level of the past month, as the US dollar continues to rally following a series of strong US data and some hawkish Fedspeak. Interestingly, the volatility of yen crosses has crashed across the board, with the yen surrendering another good part of its recent sizeable gains on th
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Bullish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY tests new 3½-month high

USDJPY makes an attempt for steeper bullish actionsMACD and RSI confirm upside momentumUSDJPY is rising towards a fresh three-and-half-month high of 149.71, posting the fifth consecutive green 4-hour session. The next strong battle likely awaits at the 150.00 psychological level, but the next resistance lies at the 151.90 level, taken from the inside swing low on July 25. But first, the price needs to overcome the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is at 151.20.Otherwise, a decline ben
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps; EURUSD remains beneath 1.1000UK CPI could provide some clues for the next BoE decision; GBPUSD in weak modeUS retail sales may lower chances for another Fed rate cut; USDJPY flirts with 149.35ECB decision -->  EURUSDThe upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday is this week's most anticipated event. Initially opposed by President Lagarde and her colleagues, the possibility of a rate decrease in October has gained traction among investors.�
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Week Ahead – ECB headed towards another cut, CPI on the agenda elsewhere

The ECB is expected to deliver its first back-to-back rate cut on ThursdayCPI data incoming in Canada, China, Japan, New Zealand and UKChina GDP and US retail sales also high on investors’ radarIs an ECB rate cut a done deal?Following the RBNZ, which cut interest rates by 50 basis points this Wednesday, the central bank torch will be passed next week to the ECB.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Quick brief – US core CPI ticks higher; jobless claims increase

US CPI inflation shows stickiness, but the focus falls on rising jobless claimsUSDJPY loses momentum; gold erases Wednesday’s declineThe US CPI inflation for all items arrived softly higher than analysts expected at 2.4% y/y on the back of increased shelter and food costs in September, although it was lower than August’s reading of 2.5%. Likewise, the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up unexpectedly to 3.3% y/y, to the highest point since June, marking it
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Wall Street hits new record after Fed minutes, CPI eyed next

Fed minutes show split over September cut but Wall Street ralliesDollar eases from near 2-month high as focus turns to CPI reportGold and oil steadier after recent lossesFed minutes add little clarity The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting published on Wednesday did little to end the uncertainty about the pace of rate reductions over the coming months.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Bullish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY hovers near 38.2% Fibonacci level

USDJPY creates bullish correction from 14-month lowRSI and MACD stand above their mid-levelsUSDJPY is holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 136.56 at 148.10 but is failing to extend its rebound from the 14-month low of 139.56 above the previous peak of 149.35.Having a look at the technical oscillators, t
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