Yen bears probe boundaries after Japan elections
USD/JPY's advance has limits.
The pair has trimmed gains after testing the top of its 20-day Bollinger Band on reports the LDP-led coalition lost its Lower-House majority.
The election outcome introduces an element of political uncertainty that may impact the pace of Bank of Japan tightening -- thus affecting the yen -- in the future.
But, for now, markets believe BOJ rate hikes are a foregone conclusion that will keep yen weakness in check, a sentiment helped by BOJ Governor Ueda, who said last week that it was important to contain any excessive build-up of yen carry positions.
While USD/JPY has risen to a three-month high amid a backdrop of higher U.S. Treasury yields, CFTC data shows that this is not due to a build-up in yen carry. Futures accounts remain long the Japanese currency even though net positions have been trimmed to just 12,771 contracts. Moreover, open interest in these contracts remains near a year-to-date low, suggesting little interest in taking either long or short positions.
Positioning may change after upcoming central bank meetings and U.S. elections in November. But, for now, yen sellers are being cautious.
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(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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