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Currencies hold tight as markets eye US election



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Currencies hold tight as markets eye US election</title></head><body>

By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk and Anita Komuves

WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Oct 28 (Reuters) -The Hungarian forint and Polish zloty were hovering around recent lows on Monday amid uncertainty about the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, while Czech markets were closed for a public holiday.

With no major events planned in central Europe in the first half of the week, traders were focusing on political news from the U.S.

"This is not a story about the forint. The entire emerging market is under pressure as the U.S. presidential election is approaching - that is a huge question mark," a Budapest-based trader said.

"I do not expect a big strengthening from the forint, but it won't get too weak either. I think it will keep trading between 400 and 410, as market sentiment is for the time being driven by the U.S. ... election and the uncertainty it brings."

Hungary's forint EURHUF= was unchanged at 404.1 per euro at 0805 GMT.

Standard and Poor's affirmed Hungary's credit rating on Friday, but such a decision was already priced in, the trader added.

The U.S. dollar is headed for its biggest monthly gain since April 2022 in November thanks to solid data from the American economy, as investors no longer expect a 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

It was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.

Markets are awaiting data from the region in the second half of the week, with flash GDP for the third quarter in the Czech Republic and Hungary to be published on Wednesday and PMI surveys expected on Friday.

Investors will also be watching flash CPI data from Poland on Thursday as well as a series of data from core markets, including the U.S. payrolls report.

In Poland, the government is due to discuss amendments to the 2024 budget on Tuesday, which may put pressure on domestic bonds, Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.

The zloty EURPLN= was 0.1% weaker at 4.3510 per euro.

"The zloty still remains and will remain under pressure from sellers in the coming days. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fluctuates around the level of 4.35 and in the next few sessions it may, in our opinion, test a technical barrier located two cents higher," Bank Millennium said.





CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1005 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.3350

25.2770

-0.23%

-2.50%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

404.1000

404.1000

+0.00%

-5.18%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3510

4.3470

-0.09%

-0.15%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9730

4.9740

+0.02%

+0.03%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9300

117.0500

+0.10%

+0.27%


Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1647.72

1647.7200

+0.00%

+16.53%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

74512.97

74263.78

+0.34%

+22.92%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2260.10

2245.25

+0.66%

-3.54%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17432.41

17473.73

-0.24%

+13.41%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4400

0.0000

+129bps

+0bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7830

0.0260

+166bps

+1bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0520

0.0000

+174bps

-2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9620

0.0130

+281bps

+1bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.4570

0.0290

+333bps

+2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8440

0.0490

+353bps

+3bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.82

3.57

3.43

4.08


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.86

6.60

6.44

6.42


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.70

5.30

4.87

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************




Editing by Mark Heinrich

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/

Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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