Bets on USD rising are growing issue for FX traders
Oct 28 (Reuters) -Bets on the dollar rising, which have grown substantially, are a growing issue for FX traders as they represent an increasing restraint on the greenback's ability to climb further.
Traders who were short of 17 billion dollars a few weeks ago are now betting almost $10 billion that the dollar rises. The rapid switch flip from shorts to longs is cause for caution in itself, as hasty decision making often lays a weak foundation for bets on the direction of a currency.
At over $10 billion, traders are holding one particularly large bet on the dollar rising versus the Canadian dollar and USD/CAD is approaching points where a number of rallies have failed in the last few years. The less surprising outcome would be another failure.
Traders are betting almost $5 billion against the Swiss franc which is the biggest wager in almost three months, but the emergence of a net EUR/USD short position is probably the biggest news in FX markets.
Traders who have rarely ventured short EUR/USD in the last two years have established an almost $4 billion bet against the single currency.
Speculative positions are reverse indicators with the risk of reversals increasing alongside the number of bets.
Like most gamblers, those trading currencies often lose, so the speedy growth of bets on dollar rising is an issue that those trying to determine the path of currencies should consider.
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Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own, editing by Ed Osmond
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