Zloty declines, erasing yearly gains on US election concerns
WARSAW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty fell further on Wednesday, at one point erasing all the gains it made this year, as concerns around the upcoming U.S. presidential election put emerging market assets under pressure.
Most emerging market currencies slipped on Wednesday, as investors tweaked their bets towards a gradual monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve which helped the dollar, while caution remained in run-up to the Nov. 5 election.
Recent market pricing of a Donald Trump victory has given the dollar a boost, as his proposed policies on taxes and tariffs are seen as inflationary, likely keeping U.S. interest rates high and undermining the currencies of trading partners.
By 1107 GMT, the zloty EURPLN= was down 0.35% against the euro at 4.336, off a session low of 4.3425, which was on par with where it had started the year.
"Clearly the market is preparing for the (U.S.) election and is discounting the probability distribution. Recently this probability favors Trump," a Warsaw-based trader said.
"This means a stronger dollar and a revision of expectations regarding the interest rates path in the States... (which) is a factor that simply carries risk aversion," the trader said, adding that the weakening zloty is part of a wider picture of pressure on emerging market assets.
"It seems to me that this will not end today or tomorrow. We have to accept this Nov. 5 perspective."
The trader also said that Poland's ministry of finance was visible on the market on Tuesday, trading foreign currencies at attractive levels.
In comments published on Wednesday, Polish central banker Ludwik Kotecki was quoted as saying that "the zloty may remain subject to greater fluctuations" due to the stronger impact of the forthcoming U.S. election on emerging market assets.
Kotecki said in the event of a Trump victory, uncertainty "will probably increase more, especially in our part of the world... This may result in pressure for the depreciation of our currency."
The zloty remains Central and Eastern Europe's best-performing currency this year on the back of stable interest rates and unblocked funds from the European Union.
Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= slipped 0.16% to 401.05 per euro, with local markets closed for a bank holiday.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.12% firmer at 25.19.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1307 CET | ||||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1900 | 25.2200 | +0.12% | -1.94% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 401.0500 | 400.4000 | -0.16% | -4.45% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3360 | 4.3210 | -0.35% | +0.20% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9740 | 4.9736 | -0.01% | +0.01% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0300 | 117.0500 | +0.02% | +0.18% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2024 | |||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1638.06 | 1631.2600 | +0.42% | +15.84% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 73846.09 | 73846.09 | +0.00% | +21.82% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2234.16 | 2250.38 | -0.72% | -4.64% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17379.72 | 17337.55 | +0.24% | +13.07% |
Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |||||
Czech Republic | ||||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4710 | 0.0330 | +134bps | +10bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.8020 | -0.0060 | +169bps | +3bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0600 | 0.0240 | +176bps | +4bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9980 | -0.0110 | +287bps | +6bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4660 | 0.0240 | +335bps | +6bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8050 | 0.0230 | +350bps | +4bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.81 | 3.53 | 3.34 | 4.11 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.84 | 6.58 | 6.37 | 6.40 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.68 | 5.31 | 4.87 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | ||||||
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Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Varun H K
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