US natgas prices flat as lower LNG feedgas offset reduced output
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Oct 22 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures were little changed onTuesday asforecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and low heating demand throughearly November and a drop in feedgas to liquefiednatural gas (LNG) export plants offseta reduction in output so far this month.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.1 cent to settle at $2.311 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.5 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary four-month low of 100.3 bcfd on Tuesday. Traders, however, have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Analysts have projected that energyfirms would cut output in calendar 2024 for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. That's because many producers have curtailed drilling activities so far this year after gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. NGAS/POLL HH/GAS
MILD WEATHER
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states will remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 6. Despite those mild forecasts, it will be cooler in November with more heating demand than in October.
The average temperature in the Lower 48 will drop to around 55 degrees Fahrenheit (12.8 Celsius) in early November, according to the latest forecasts, down from an average of 63 F now. That would still be above the normal average of 51 F in early November.
With cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 95.5 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary two-week low of 12.1 bcfd due to reductions so far this week at a couple of plants in Louisiana - Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd Cameron.
Feedgas to Sabine was on track to decline to 3.9 bcfd on Tuesday from an average of 4.9 bcfd over the past week, while gas flows to Cameron were on track to drop to 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday, the same as Monday. That is down from an average of 2.2 bcfd over the prior seven days at Cameron.
LNG export plants, like Cameron, can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of that gas to fuel equipment used to liquefy the gas.
Week ended Oct 18 Forecast | Week ended Oct 11 Actual | Year ago Oct 18 | Five-year average Oct 18 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +60 | +76 | +81 | +76 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,765 | 3,705 | 3,679 | 3,618 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.1% | 4.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.34 | 2.31 | 3.15 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.82 | 12.68 | 14.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.34 | 13.28 | 16.30 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 114 | 114 | 127 | 174 | 193 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 49 | 45 | 39 | 32 | 25 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 163 | 159 | 166 | 206 | 218 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.7 | 101.7 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 109.2 | 109.3 | N/A | 103.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | N/A | 5.9 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.7 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 7.6 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.4 | 30.8 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 30.9 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 22.1 | 22.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 75.6 | 73.6 | 77.0 | 75.0 | 74.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 97.6 | 95.5 | 98.8 | N/A | 92.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 96 | 96 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 91 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 91 | 90 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 25 | Week ended Oct 18 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 16 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 40 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 12 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.76 | 1.82 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.48 | 1.36 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.34 | 2.44 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.32 | 1.29 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.37 | 1.43 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.57 | 1.47 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.61 | 1.61 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.02 | 0.17 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.93 | 0.45 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 41.25 | 28.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 41.25 | 35.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 38.00 | 14.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 67.00 | 38.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 26.00 | 23.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 27.75 | 18.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Leslie Adler
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限,并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容,但无意进行任何更改或扩展,也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限,将受下列条款与条例约束:(i) 条款与条例;(ii) 风险提示;以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意,网站所提供的所有讯息,仅限一般资讯用途。此外,XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成,也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容,包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接,皆保持不变,并作为一般市场评论所提供,而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解,XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯,更多详情请点击 这里。