Goldman Sachs raises 2025 aluminum, copper price outlook
Oct 24 (Reuters) -Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised its 2025 aluminum and copper price forecasts citing higher demand potential in top consumer China following stimulus measures.
The investment bank hiked its 2025 average aluminum price outlook to $2,700 per ton from $2,540 per ton, and raised theaverage for itscopper price forecast to $10,160 from $10,100.
LME aluminium CMAL3 was trading near $2,634.50 a ton on Thursday, after hitting its highest since May 31 at $2,715, while LME copper CMCU3 traded at $9,510.50 a ton. MET/L
"The estimated China GDP boost to prices is significantly larger for metals than for oil and coal largely because of China's dominant share in global metals demand," the bank said in a note.
Demand for aluminum and copper will benefit from the equipment upgrade and consumer goods trade-in programs, the note said.
"We see two-sided policy risks to prices with upside risk from potential further stimulus but downside risk from any potential rise in US-China trade tensions," it added.
China's finance ministryon Saturday unveiled a fiscal stimulus package aimed at reviving the flagging economy and achieving the government's growth target.
Goldman said that the roughly 20% rally in iron ore prices following stimulus looks excessive relative to their estimate of a fundamental boost of up to 7%, reiterating the view that iron ore prices need to fall below $90 per ton to rebalance fundamentals.
The bank left its oil, natural gas, and coal price forecasts unchanged, and estimated stimulus boosts to energy prices that are modest relative to bigger drivers such as oil supply from the Middle East and winter weather for natural gas.
"Following the triggering of the policy put and the pick-up in timely China oil demand proxies, we now see the risks to our China 2025 oil demand growth forecast as balanced (vs. skewed to the downside prior), which supports our base case for Brent in the $70-85 range," Goldman said.
Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; editing by Diane Craft
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