Forint pulls away from lows in thin trading
WARSAW, Oct 14 (Reuters) -The Hungarian forint edged away from last week's lows in thin trading on Monday, while other regional currencies were muted ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision later this week and with the conflict in the Middle East in focus.
The euro weakened for an 11th time in 12 sessions as investors priced in a widely expected 25 basis point interest rate cut from the European Central Bank at its Oct. 17 meeting, with data pointing to deteriorating euro zone activity.
By 1021 GMT the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was up 0.2% against the euro to 400.35, nearing the 400 psychological level which it slipped across again late last week.
"There is minimal activity in the market, and it is trading in this 397-402 range, and the central bank is also trying to keep the forint from quickly weakening further with its messages," a Budapest-based trader said.
"Last week's inflation (reading for Hungary) came in lower than expected and the central bank said there will probably be no rate cut in October, so the rate differential still helps the forint."
Hungarian central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag last week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the bank's maininterest rate, which remains the European Union's highest alongside Romania's, after an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a shift in the U.S. rate outlook pushed the forint to 18-month-lows.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was steady against the euro at 4.29, back below the 4.30 psychological level it breached earlier this month.
"The high resistance of the zloty to the current decline in EUR-USD is, in our opinion, a good prognosis, as long as we don't see a larger correction in the markets," ING BSK analysts wrote in a note.
They pointed out that a lack of details from China on economic stimulus had limited negative impact on sentiment in Asia and that in the Middle East there was no major escalation of tensions in over the weekend.
"This should support the gradual strengthening of EM (emerging market) currencies, including the zloty. In our opinion, the EUR/PLN pair may return to 4.27-28 during the week."
The Czech crown was also largely stable, trading up 0.1% at 25.27 per euro, and pulling away from two-month lows hit earlier this month.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1221 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2700 | 25.2890 | +0.08% | -2.25% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 400.3500 | 401.3250 | +0.24% | -4.29% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2900 | 4.2883 | -0.04% | +1.27% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9745 | 4.9748 | +0.01% | -0.00% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 117.0300 | +0.09% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1600.07 | 1593.9300 | +0.39% | +13.16% |
Budapest | .BUX | 74395.92 | 74264.68 | +0.18% | +22.73% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2331.03 | 2333.75 | -0.12% | -0.51% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17657.91 | 17727.84 | -0.39% | +14.88% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3370 | 0.0240 | +109bps | +4bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6280 | 0.0100 | +150bps | +2bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.9410 | 0.0180 | +167bps | +2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9560 | 0.0170 | +271bps | +3bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.2980 | 0.0240 | +317bps | +3bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6010 | 0.0190 | +333bps | +3bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.32 | 4.15 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.64 | 6.35 | 6.12 | 6.34 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.79 | 5.49 | 5.07 | 5.87 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Kirsten Donovan
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