Forint and Czech crown lose momentum, zloty gains
Focus on inflation data later this week
Polish zloty benefits from expected stable rates
Region's stock markets mostly higher
By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk
WARSAW, Oct 9 (Reuters) -The Czech crown and Hungarian forint weakened slightly on Wednesday, losing momentum after the previous day's rally, while the Polish zloty extended gains, as global factors dominated investors' concerns.
Citing a lack of scheduled events, but ongoing geopolitical risk and a possible escalation in the Middle East, ING analysts said they were becoming more bullish on CEE currencies.
"Local fundamentals in our view remain strong given that the market has priced out much of the central bank easing across the region," they said in a note. "Interest rate differentials post the selloff are at record strong levels for CEE FX, which we think should be a key driver if the global story remains muted."
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was down 0.18% at 400 per euro at 0900 GMT.
"Today could be about wait-and-see ahead of tomorrow's inflation data, and the forint's market could be mainly watching international moves," Erste Bank analysts wrote in a note.
Investors will also monitor inflation data due later in the week in Europe and the United States.
On Friday, a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced bets of outsized Federal Reserve rate cuts, leaving central Europe under renewed pressure from the dollar.
The Polish zloty EURPLN=, which has benefited from the National Bank of Poland's intention to maintain stable rates as other central banks ease policy, was up 0.15% at 4.3020 per euro on Wednesday, holding gains from the previous session.
"The zloty, which strengthened yesterday for the first time in almost two weeks, will fight to return below the level of 4.30. However, we do not believe that today's attempts to play the Polish currency stronger will be effective," Bank Millennium said.
Meanwhile the Czech crown EURCZK= was down 0.17% at 25.3530 per euro, with Commerzbank economists expecting it to gradually return towards 25.15 level over the coming quarter.
Stock markets in the region were mostly up, with the Warsaw blue-chip index .WIG20 gaining 1.15%, while Prague .PX was an outlier with a loss of 0.3%.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1100 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3530 | 25.3090 | -0.17% | -2.57% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 400.0000 | 399.3000 | -0.18% | -4.20% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3020 | 4.3085 | +0.15% | +0.99% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9773 | 4.9774 | +0.00% | -0.06% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0100 | 117.0600 | +0.04% | +0.20% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1588.17 | 1593.2100 | -0.32% | +12.32% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 74240.74 | 74175.47 | +0.09% | +22.47% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2311.13 | 2284.75 | +1.15% | -1.36% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17600.65 | 17520.32 | +0.46% | +14.50% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2740 | -0.0200 | +105bps | -2bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5760 | -0.0360 | +148bps | -3bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.9020 | -0.0130 | +167bps | +0bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.8850 | -0.1290 | +266bps | -13bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1770 | -0.0080 | +308bps | +0bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4420 | -0.0470 | +321bps | -4bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.78 | 3.47 | 3.32 | 4.17 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.19 | 6.36 | 6.11 | 6.32 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.75 | 5.45 | 4.91 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
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Additional reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Barbara Lewis
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