Don't be a sheep following the Trump-betting flock
Dow off ~0.5%, S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq edges red
Industrials weakest S&P sector; Staples lead gainers
Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.3%
Dollar ~flat; gold rises; crude up >1.5%; bitcoin off ~0.6%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.19%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
DON'T BE A SHEEP FOLLOWING THE TRUMP-BETTING FLOCK
As the U.S. election heat picks up, prediction markets have ramped up their odds of a Donald Trump-Republican victory, which might not paint the most accurate picture of who would finally hold the reins.
"The wisdom of the crowd often beats experts in forecasting accuracy. Still, the crowd needs to be composed of diverse individuals making independent forecasts, but prediction markets may fail to satisfy these conditions," Scotiabank analysts said.
The bank's data reflect a wide margin in current forecasts between expert models and prediction markets.
CASE | BETTING MARKETS ODDS | EXPERT MODELS ODDS |
U.S. Presidency | 59% | 51% |
U.S. House | 50% | 53% |
U.S. Senate | 82% | 72% |
The analysts note that the odds of a Trump win placed by the expert models, which are only at the margin, serve as a better gauge than the prediction markets' bets.
In fact, such bettors might often be influenced by prior bets, which reduces their independence especially in a tight race such as the upcoming one.
Scotiabank's aggregated forecasted results from several expert models reflect a slight Trump advantage, as Vice-President Kamala Harris' poll lead has shrunk especially in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Meanwhile, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found Harris held a marginal 46% to 43% lead over Trump.
As financial markets move in tandem with these prediction market bets, as seen with the ongoing charge in Trump trades like the U.S. dollar =USD and bitcoin BTC=, some have flagged risks to such trade setups if the election outcome surprises.
(Ankika Biswas)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
WALL STREET UNDER PRESSURE AS RATES UPTREND WEIGHS CLICK HERE
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD: CAN THE CLIMB CLEAR THE CLOUD? - CLICK HERE
CAUTION! S&P POSITIONING HAS BECOME 'STRETCHED' - CLICK HERE
BETTING ON M&A? HERE'S WHAT TO OWN - CLICK HERE
WEAK START FOR STOXX, TECH CAPS FURTHER LOSSES - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN BEFORE THE BELL: UNCERTAINTY OFFSETS POSITIVE EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
BONDS AND GOLD BEGIN COUNTDOWN TO US ELECTION DAY - CLICK HERE
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限,并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容,但无意进行任何更改或扩展,也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限,将受下列条款与条例约束:(i) 条款与条例;(ii) 风险提示;以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意,网站所提供的所有讯息,仅限一般资讯用途。此外,XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成,也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容,包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接,皆保持不变,并作为一般市场评论所提供,而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料,仅适用于教育/资讯类用途,不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议,或是交易价格纪录,或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解,XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯,更多详情请点击 这里。