Currencies down, under pressure from stronger dollar
By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk
WARSAW, Oct 25 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were weaker on Friday,under pressure from a stronger dollar as traders bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow rate cuts and amid uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= was trading 0.3% lower on the day at 403.8 per euro at 0824 GMT, its lowest since Dec. 27, 2022.
Central European currencies are being pressured by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election, an FX trader in Budapest said.
"I think the uncertainties around the American election are more or less priced in by now. The next step is now the election, the result could push the dollar in either direction, and this will affect the region," he said.
"Today's move is not very big so far. Technically, the way is open for the forint to weaken as far as 405 or 407," a second FX traders aid.
The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.
The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.
The forint's weakness forced the National Bank of Hungary to pause its rate cuts at its meeting on Tuesday.
On Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's is expected to release its review of Hungary's debt ratings and the wait for that has also kept investors cautious.
The zloty EURPLN= was down 0.1% against the euro at 4.35.
"The EUR/PLN exchange rate is stuck at around 4.34... Today we do not expect any major changes in the Polish currency. In our opinion, the macro data calendar does not contain information that could significantly influence sentiment," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.
"The issue of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States remains the dominant topic in the valuation of assets in developed markets."
The Czech crown EURCZK= is down 0.16% at 25.24 per euro on the day and flat for the week.
Rate-setter Jan Prochazka told Reuters the Czech National Bank can continue easing monetary policy amid weaker growth abroad and a slow domestic demand recovery, but must be mindful of inflation hotspots, especially in the services sector.
The Prague bourse .PX was a touch down as shares in Moneta MONET.PR fell 0.3% after reaching an all-time high on Thursday following a rise in its profit outlook. The Warsaw blue-chip index .WIG20 fell 0.5% while Budapest .BUX was up 0.9%.
Hungary's pharmaceutical company Richter GDRB.BU was up 1% by 0851 GMT after the company announced a new collaboration with U.S. pharma company AbbVie late on Thursday for the discovery and developments of novel targets of neuropsychiatric conditions.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1024 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2400 | 25.1990 | -0.16% | -2.13% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 403.8000 | 402.7000 | -0.27% | -5.11% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3500 | 4.3450 | -0.11% | -0.13% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9730 | 4.9734 | +0.01% | +0.03% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9800 | 117.1000 | +0.10% | +0.23% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1645.52 | 1647.6900 | -0.13% | +16.37% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 74398.13 | 73715.29 | +0.93% | +22.73% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2233.82 | 2245.55 | -0.52% | -4.66% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17514.87 | 17445.16 | +0.40% | +13.95% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4170 | -0.0200 | +128bps | -6bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7660 | 0.0100 | +167bps | -2bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0020 | -0.0130 | +173bps | -3bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9490 | -0.0110 | +281bps | -5bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4110 | -0.0180 | +331bps | -5bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7870 | 0.0130 | +351bps | -1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.82 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 4.10 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.83 | 6.61 | 6.43 | 6.41 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.68 | 5.25 | 4.79 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw; Additional reporting by Jan Lopatka in Prague and Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Janane Venkatraman
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