Colombia's central bank seen betting on bigger rate cut
Open poll data
By Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTA, Oct 25 (Reuters) -Colombian analysts predict the central bank will choose to speed up monetary easing in its Oct. 31 decision, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, though a minority expect the bank will maintain a gradual pace of rate cuts as inflation slows.
Eleven of 19 analysts polled by Reuters forecast a 75 basis-point cut that would bring the South American nation's benchmark interest rate to 9.50% from a previous rate of 10.25% set on Sept. 30.
Eight, however, said they believed the bank would continue a trend of 50 basis-point cuts established at its past five monetary policy meetings, taking the rate down to 9.75%.
In either case, the analysts predicted the decision would split the bank's seven-member board.
They also maintained their forecast for a benchmark rate of 8.75% by the end of this year and 6% by the end of 2025.
"Inflation continued to decline in September and the economy maintains a low growth level," said Julio Romero, chief economist at investment firm Corfi. "Although the fiscal risks that are worrying some board members persist, we see room to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts."
Colombia's 12-month inflation landed at 5.81% in September, coming down from August's 6.12% at a faster rate than analysts had expected, but still well above the central bank's 3% target.
But some analysts bet that caution will prevail in the coming months.
Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Writing by Sarah Morland; Editing by Julia Symmes Cobb
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