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China Policy Watch-More in store, much at stake



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Oct 25 (Reuters) -Markets have swung from euphoria to jaded pessimism on China. While furtherstimulus is almost a certainty as the stakes for the economy continue to rise, whether or not the measuresmeet lofty expectation is the question.

China has announced a swathe of monetary policy easing steps since late September.The one-year medium-term lending facility rate was held at 2.00% on Friday, after anunprecedented 30-basis-point cut last month.

Traders are ontenterhooks awaiting the fiscal leg of the economic revival package, with no newsyet onthe anticipated meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee - China's top legislative body, typically held in late October.

On other fronts, China has unleashed restraints on property markets and liberatedanimal spirits in equity markets. The Shanghai Composite Indexhas risen around 20% since the stimulus press conference on Sept 24, though well off its reactionary surgeof 34%.

Next week, China's October PMIs will provide a glimpseof the early effects of all these measures. Expectations are low as global demand slowsand efforts to stoke domestic demand will take longer to materialize in the data.

Much is at stake as China's economy faces multiple headwinds, from demographic change to societal disenchantment, and of course, potentially seismic U.S. political event risks, makingthe attempt to pivot to consumption-driven growth even more imperative. That suggests China won't want the yuan to be too weak, even if it may support the backbone of the economy - exports.

For more click on FXBUZ


CNYfix: https://tmsnrt.rs/4eZoLGU

RMBindex: https://tmsnrt.rs/4hmShYD

CNYfibo: https://tmsnrt.rs/4hhmpol

China c.bank cuts benchmark loan prime rates https://reut.rs/4f8l41e


Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai

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