Asian FX, stocks weaken on slower Fed cut hopes and potential Trump win
Thai baht hits 6-week low, down 1%
Asian stocks largely trade lower
EM FX set to log worst month in over one year
By Roushni Nair and Aaditya GovindRao
Oct 24 (Reuters) -The Thai baht sank to a six-week low while most Asian currencies seesawed in a narrow range on Thursday, and regional equities edged lower as traders tempered U.S. rate cut wagers and considered the possibility of a second Trump presidency.
The baht THB=TH dropped as much as 1% to 33.80 per U.S. dollar, its lowest since Sept. 10, resuming trading after a holiday and catching up with declines in other Asian currencies on prospects the Federal Reserve may not cut rates aggressively.
The Singapore dollar SGD=, Philippine peso PHP=, and the South Korean won KRW=KFTC all traded flat, last up 0.2% each.
The U.S. dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against six rivals, stood at 104.33 as of 0320 GMT, not far from the overnight high of 104.57, a level last seen on July 30. USD/
A gauge for currencies .MIEM00000CUS has dipped 1.7% in October so far and is on track for its worst month since Feb. 2023.
Strong macroeconomic indicators and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, combined with election prediction markets putting strong odds on Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election, have dampened expectations for monetary easing. Polls, however, show a tightly contested presidential race.
The dampened expectations on rate cuts have boosted the dollar and diminished the appeal of riskier Asian currencies.
In the short term, the baht and other Asian emerging market currencies may face pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, likely persisting until the U.S. election concludes, said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank.
Thailand's economic growth may not reach 3% this year but should come in above that level next year as the government in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy plans to accelerate investment, the finance minister said on Tuesday.
"Another factor that could contribute to THB's volatility would be high correlation with gold price, and now gold price could move higher with quite a bit of volatility."
In Indonesia, new President Prabowo Subianto officially swore in his cabinet on Monday, which included the reappointment of the country's highly-regarded Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.
"I still think there could be some upside for the rupiah even with some rate cuts going forward from the Bank of Indonesia. In the near-term, I think IDR could face the same pressure from strength in the U.S. Dollar just like other EM FX," Panichpibool said.
In Malaysia, annual inflation came in at 1.8% in September, slightly below expectations. The Malaysian central bank remains the only one in Emerging Asia that analysts anticipate will maintain its policy stance through 2025.
"I believe BNM might eventually cut rates, especially if inflation meets or falls below the target, and the strong MYR rally could facilitate easing if necessary," Panichpibool said.
Equities in Manila .PSI, Kuala Lumpur .KLSE, and Shanghai .SSEC retreated between 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Shares in Singapore .STI and Bangkok .SETI, however, inched up 0.3% and 0.6% respectively.
HIGHLIGHTS:
** South Korea's Q3 economic growth misses expectations
** Thailand's car production slides over 25% in September
Asian stocks and currencies as at 0333 GMT | ||||||
COUNTRY | FX RIC | FX DAILY % | FX YTD % | INDEX | STOCKS DAILY % | STOCKS YTD % |
Japan | JPY= | +0.18 | -7.48 | .N225 | 0.13 | 14.62 |
China | CNY=CFXS | +0.23 | -0.26 | .SSEC | -0.61 | 10.34 |
India | INR=IN | +0.02 | -1.01 | .NSEI | 0.00 | 12.44 |
Indonesia | IDR= | +0.19 | -1.22 | .JKSE | -0.29 | 6.77 |
Malaysia | MYR= | -0.02 | +5.57 | .KLSE | -0.38 | 12.42 |
Philippines | PHP= | +0.13 | -4.50 | .PSI | -0.76 | 13.36 |
S.Korea | KRW=KFTC | +0.20 | -6.59 | .KS11 | -0.08 | -2.18 |
Singapore | SGD= | +0.17 | -0.10 | .STI | 0.63 | 11.83 |
Taiwan | TWD=TP | +0.12 | -4.11 | .TWII | 0.15 | 30.33 |
Thailand | THB=TH | -0.80 | +1.18 | .SETI | 0.18 | 4.04 |
Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Asian stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Reporting by Roushni Nair and Aaditya Rao Govind in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonali Paul
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
